At the close of the Constitutional Convention in 1787, Dr. James McHenry, a Maryland delegate, followed Benjamin Franklin from Independence Hall. He recorded a question asked by a lady, directed at Dr. Franklin.

The lady asked, "Well Doctor, what have we got? A republic or a monarchy?"

"A republic," replied Dr. Franklin, "if you can keep it."


"The smallest minority on earth is the individual. Those who deny individual rights cannot claim to be defenders of minorities." - Ayn Rand

Monday, January 31, 2011

Tales from the Eurabian Nights

Science Fiction usually paints a bleak picture of the future by seizing on present events and extrapolating the impact of this or that variable. The transformation of Europe into Eurabia isn't part of a SciFi scenario. It's real, it's here and it's something we need to consider. “The Future of the Global Muslim Population”, produced by the Pew Research Centre, a non-profit outfit based in Washington, DC, predicts that Muslim numbers will soar from 1.6 billion in 2010 to 2.2 billion by 2030. In other words, from 23.4% to 26.4% of the global total. (The Economist)

The authors call their calculations demographic, not political. Drawing on earlier Pew research, they say conversion is not a big factor in the global contest between Islam, Christianity and other faiths; the converts balance out. Nor do they assess piety; via the imperfect data of the United Nations, the European Union and national statistics, they aim simply to measure how many people call themselves Muslim, at least culturally, if asked. (EU Times)

The total Muslim share of Europe’s population is predicted to grow from 6% now to 8% in 2030: hardly the stuff of nightmares. But amid that are some sharp rises. The report assumes Britain has 2.9m Muslims now (far higher than the usual estimates, which suggest 2.4m at most), rising to 5.6m by 2030. As poor migrants start families in Spain and Italy, numbers there will rocket; in France and Germany, where some Muslims are middle-class, rises will be more modest—though from a higher base. Russia’s Muslims will increase to 14.4% or 18.6m, up from 11.7% now (partly because non-Muslims are declining). The report takes a cautious baseline of 2.6m American Muslims in 2010, but predicts the number will surge by 2030 to 6.2m, or 1.7% of the population—about the same size as Jews or Episcopalians. In Canada the Muslim share will surge from 2.8% to 6.6%. (The Economist, op cit)

Make of it what you will.


Sandee said...

Scary if you ask me. Very scary. I've never quite figured out where to draw the line from the good Muslims (haven't met one yet) to the radical Muslims. Just can't figure it out. If I read the Koran and all other associated teachings there there isn't a line to be drawn.

Have a terrific day. :)

Opus #6 said...

Some suggest that "good" muslims are the ones with populations below ten percent. Once they get over a certain number, they begin to agitate for Sharia, blow things up, attack and rape indigenous populations and drive out/kill/defeat all remaining non-muslims. If you doubt this, look at the various histories of countries. Show me where this is wrong.

The Watcher said...

I've wondered about a 'Muslim Critical Mass' theory for a while now.

Race Bannon said...

It has always bothered me when a reference is made to 'moderate Muslims.' Would a Christian like to be called a 'moderate Christian'? I don't know if it is any more accurate, but I would like to see the media refer to them as 'peaceful Muslims' vs 'violent Muslims'...then when you speak with a Muslim, you could ask, "Oh, are you a peaceful Muslim?", and see how that goes...

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